CPIM Practice Exam

What does the "delphi method" refer to?

1. A quantitative forecasting technique

2. A qualitative forecasting technique involving expert opinions

3. A method of statistical forecasting

4. A technique to gather data

The correct answer is: A qualitative forecasting technique involving expert opinions

The Delphi method is recognized as a qualitative forecasting technique that relies on the insights and opinions of experts in a particular field to predict future events or trends. This method is particularly valuable when there is uncertainty or when quantitative data may be limited or unreliable. The process typically involves multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts, with a facilitator summarizing the feedback after each round. As experts reassess their earlier responses in light of the group's collective insights, a convergence toward a consensus on the topic can emerge. This approach is distinct from quantitative forecasting techniques, which rely on numerical data and statistical analysis. The Delphi method emphasizes subjective judgment and the iterative process of refining opinions over time, making it a powerful tool in scenarios where intuition and experience play a crucial role in decision-making.